Artio™ Risk Model

Our predictive risk engine includes dynamic real time insights such as biomass monitoring, carbon sequestration forecasts, and climate risk indicators like fire and flood exposure.

Carbon Modelling

Artio develops fully independent carbon curves by calculating the unique lifecycle analysis for every project type, from scientific tree growth rates to pyrolysis and weathering outputs. Our models move beyond generic estimates, providing high-fidelity sequestration and delivery projections tailored to specific methodologies. This rigorous, science-first approach ensures that our modelling is backed by a precise carbon accounting framework.

Biomass Monitoring

We leverage deep learning models trained on global biomes and LiDAR data to generate high-resolution, 10-metre biomass maps. By correlating Sentinel-2 satellite imagery with digital elevation and land cover data, we achieve granular, spatially accurate insights across any project site. This scalable remote-sensing framework provides a consistent "ground truth" for forest structures and vegetation density worldwide.

Climate Risk Modelling

We create custom impact functions for every project type to quantify the specific vulnerabilities of carbon assets to fire, flood, drought, and storm risks. These functions are integrated directly into our carbon curves, allowing us to stress-test project performance against escalating environmental volatility. By modeling climate risk at the project level, we translate complex meteorological data into actionable insights.

FAQs

  • Our internal database can forecast species mix with over 8,000 different species covering any country.

    We use over 120,000 species specific data points on diameter, height and relevant allometries to model growth and mortality over a 30-year period.

  • We understood the need for climate modelling for our risk model and sought external datasets that supported our analysis. After careful analysis and discussion with data suppliers we identified a significant gap.

    Climate models that quantified tree loss specific to our needs, focusing from day one of a tree’s life were not available with sufficient detail. This drove the need to build these models ourselves.

    Artio’s model maps climate risk impacts on forests from seedling to maturity giving you insights not available elsewhere

  • Our risk model works for various use cases across forestry and carbon technology assessments. If you require insights from early stages and models optimised to cover entire lifecycles we can provide unique insights from our market leading models.

  • We do not recommend specific methodologies however we can assess your project’s eligibility under each relevant methodology to support your decision making.