Artio and AlliedOffsets publish CORSIA Market Forecast 2026
By Bilal Hussain
For a long time, the conversation around the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) has been dominated by a single metric: volume. But as the market looks toward the First Phase compliance period, a new reality is emerging.
In a new partnership, Artio and AlliedOffsets have released the CORSIA Market Forecast 2026. The analysis suggests that the success of this global market won't be defined by how many credits are issued, but by how many can actually be insured.
A Market of Two Halves
On paper, the growth is impressive. In just one year, the supply of CORSIA credits has more than doubled, climbing from 15 million to over 32 million.
Yet, for an airline looking to secure its future, much of this supply remains a mirage. Host-country authorisation hurdles and the slow progress of Article 6 have created a landscape where millions of credits exist, but only a fraction are truly "market-ready". This is the gap between theoretical supply and accessible supply.
Unlocking the Supply
The report highlights a critical pivot point for the industry:
While 154 million credits could theoretically be issued in the first phase, a staggering 121 million are currently projected to be unauthorized and unusable. Analysis identifies that insurance has the power to unlock 64 million of those credits by providing the security needed for Letters of Authorisation (LoAs).
Despite this potential, current insurance capacity is the new bottleneck. Without a rapid scaling of this capacity, available volumes could drop to just 90 million credits by late 2027, falling far short of projected demand.
The Price of Uncertainty
This isn't just a logistical problem; it’s a financial one. In a market where supply is successfully unlocked through insurance and adjustments, prices are expected to range between $8 and $32. However, if insurance capacity remains a limiting factor, the "scarcity premium" could drive those prices as high as $34 to $50 per credit.
Bilal Hussain, Co-Founder and CEO of Artio, commented:
"For CORSIA to be a success, the focus must shift from theoretical supply to what can actually reach the market. That means scaling insurance capacity, improving the quality and consistency of authorisations and giving buyers confidence in delivery."
Fundile Maphanga, Policy Lead at AlliedOffsets, echoes this need for clarity:
"Whilst issuances have increased significantly, multiple layers of eligibility and delivery risk mean that only a limited amount of credits are likely to be available in reality. This is where reliable data on supply, demand and prices becomes essential for airlines, investors and policymakers."
The Path Forward
The CORSIA First Phase is a trial by fire for the global carbon market. It is proving that data and insurance are no longer optional extras, they are the infrastructure required to turn full report hereclimate goals into tangible results.
Artio continues to build the risk models that bridge this gap, ensuring that high-quality carbon projects don't just exist on a registry, but actually make it to the market where they can do the most good.
Check out the full report here and if you’d like to learn more reach out to our team about CORSIA Insurance.
